I finished my last class on oil today, and one of my fellow classmates is a delightful man who spent years working in the Persian Gulf, and took this global class on oil to keep up with some of the developments since he retired. After class, several of us wound up talking to him, and he told us about his recent visit to Iran. He tells us that despite the economic sanctions, there’s a whole bunch of Iranian-Americans who travel back and forth between the two countries, and that’s its extremely easy for an American to visit there. People there like Americans.
The Persian Gulf, he tells us, has a bit of a mixed attitude toward Americans, and if you want into a store and happen to walk near a woman there, she will quite likely look downward to scrupulously avoid eye contact. In Iran, however, he tells us that if you happen to be walking about in public, you will be quickly spotted as an American and friendly men and women will come talk you to you. They will ask you what you think of their country, what you think of their regime, and what you think of international politics. They will tell you about their own opinions and what they think about your country. This man was telling us that while the government is to a large degree controlled by theocratic elements, the people are quite open. Even police officers, he tells us, want to talk to you and see how you feel about Iran.
What to make of this? I’ve maintained before that fundamentalist Islam as it exists today is to a large extent a reactionary counter-force to the prevailing Westernizing trend experienced by Muslims worldwide. They are moving toward living as typical industrial and post-industrial capitalistic people. Iran, for example, is far and away the Muslim nation with the earliest adoption of widespread internet use. Everyone texts; everyone has cell phones. Total fertility rates have dropped like a rock from a primitive 6.7 births per woman in the early 1980′s to a European-style 1.8 births per woman now.
Fundamentalist Islam cannot hold. It may make a heck of a splash on the way out, but that’s exactly where it’s going. But Islam itself shows no signs of going anywhere. It may not provide the foundation necessary for a stable social order, but what else are they going to turn to? Western secular humanism — which doesn’t even work in its birthplaces? Nah. Unless there is massive Christianization — which is entirely possible, even if nowhere in sight right now — I predict a gradually fading Islamic worldview for the majority, with some fireworks of reactionary Islamic theocracy for some time.
Thoughts on the People of Iran
I finished my last class on oil today, and one of my fellow classmates is a delightful man who spent years working in the Persian Gulf, and took this global class on oil to keep up with some of the developments since he retired. After class, several of us wound up talking to him, and he told us about his recent visit to Iran. He tells us that despite the economic sanctions, there’s a whole bunch of Iranian-Americans who travel back and forth between the two countries, and that’s its extremely easy for an American to visit there. People there like Americans.
The Persian Gulf, he tells us, has a bit of a mixed attitude toward Americans, and if you want into a store and happen to walk near a woman there, she will quite likely look downward to scrupulously avoid eye contact. In Iran, however, he tells us that if you happen to be walking about in public, you will be quickly spotted as an American and friendly men and women will come talk you to you. They will ask you what you think of their country, what you think of their regime, and what you think of international politics. They will tell you about their own opinions and what they think about your country. This man was telling us that while the government is to a large degree controlled by theocratic elements, the people are quite open. Even police officers, he tells us, want to talk to you and see how you feel about Iran.
What to make of this? I’ve maintained before that fundamentalist Islam as it exists today is to a large extent a reactionary counter-force to the prevailing Westernizing trend experienced by Muslims worldwide. They are moving toward living as typical industrial and post-industrial capitalistic people. Iran, for example, is far and away the Muslim nation with the earliest adoption of widespread internet use. Everyone texts; everyone has cell phones. Total fertility rates have dropped like a rock from a primitive 6.7 births per woman in the early 1980′s to a European-style 1.8 births per woman now.
Fundamentalist Islam cannot hold. It may make a heck of a splash on the way out, but that’s exactly where it’s going. But Islam itself shows no signs of going anywhere. It may not provide the foundation necessary for a stable social order, but what else are they going to turn to? Western secular humanism — which doesn’t even work in its birthplaces? Nah. Unless there is massive Christianization — which is entirely possible, even if nowhere in sight right now — I predict a gradually fading Islamic worldview for the majority, with some fireworks of reactionary Islamic theocracy for some time.
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